Update to Trinity Study Tables
The original Trinity Study measured returns from 1945 through 1995, a 50year period. Here are the same tables updated to measure 90 years 1926 through 2014:
The Trinity Study Tables
Table 1:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio
Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20year periods, 51; 25year periods, 46; 30year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds are represented by longterm, highgrade corporates.
Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.
PortfolioComposition/Payout Period 
Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value 

3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  
100% Stocks  
15 Years  100  100  98  98  93  91  88  77  63  55 
20 Years  100  98  96  94  92  84  73  61  47  43 
25 Years  100  98  96  91  87  78  70  50  43  35 
30 Years  100  98  95  90  85  78  68  54  49  34 
75% Stocks25% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  96  95  91  79  63  46 
20 Years  100  100  100  96  94  88  71  51  41  33 
25 Years  100  100  98  96  91  78  57  46  33  26 
30 Years  100  100  98  95  88  73  54  46  37  24 
50% Stocks50% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  100  98  91  71  50  36 
20 Years  100  100  100  100  96  88  61  41  25  10 
25 Years  100  100  100  98  96  70  43  22  7  0 
30 Years  100  100  100  98  90  51  37  15  0  0 
25% Stocks75% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  100  100  91  50  21  14 
20 Years  100  100  100  100  100  71  24  12  4  2 
25 Years  100  100  100  100  78  22  9  0  0  0 
30 Years  100  100  100  100  32  5  0  0  0  0 
100% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  100  79  43  38  14  7 
20 Years  100  100  100  96  47  35  16  6  0  0 
25 Years  100  100  98  52  26  7  2  0  0  0 
30 Years  100  100  51  27  0  0  0  0  0  0 
The Trinity Study Tables
Table 2:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1946 to 1995 That are Supported by the Portfolio
Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15year payout periods from 1946 to 1995, inclusively, is 36; 20year periods, 31; 25year periods, 26; 30year periods, 21. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, and bonds are represented by longterm, highgrade corporates.
Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.
Portfolio Composition/ Payout Period 
Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value 

3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  
100% Stocks  
15 Years  100  100  98  98  93  91  88  77  63  55 
20 Years  100  98  96  94  92  84  73  61  47  43 
25 Years  100  98  96  91  87  78  70  50  43  35 
30 Years  100  98  95  90  85  78  68  54  49  34 
75% Stocks25% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  96  95  91  79  63  46 
20 Years  100  100  100  96  94  88  71  51  41  33 
25 Years  100  100  98  96  91  78  57  46  33  26 
30 Years  100  100  98  95  88  73  54  46  37  24 
50% Stocks50% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  100  98  91  71  50  36 
20 Years  100  100  100  100  96  88  61  41  25  10 
25 Years  100  100  100  98  96  70  43  22  7  0 
30 Years  100  100  100  98  90  51  37  15  0  0 
25% Stocks75% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  100  100  91  50  21  14 
20 Years  100  100  100  100  100  71  24  12  4  2 
25 Years  100  100  100  100  78  22  9  0  0  0 
30 Years  100  100  100  100  32  5  0  0  0  0 
100% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  100  100  79  43  38  14  7 
20 Years  100  100  100  96  47  35  16  6  0  0 
25 Years  100  100  98  52  26  7  2  0  0  0 
30 Years  100  100  51  27  0  0  0  0  0  0 
The Trinity Study Tables
Table 3:
Portfolio Success Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 that are Supported by the Portfolio After Adjusting Withdrawals for Inflation and Deflation
Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20year periods, 51; 25year periods, 46; 30year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard and Poor's 500 Index, bonds are represented by longterm, highgrade corporates, and inflation (deflation) rates are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.
Portfolio Composition/ Payout Period 
Withdrawal Rate as a % of Initial Portfolio Value 

3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  
100% Stocks  
15 Years  100  100  100  91  79  70  63  55  43  34 
20 Years  100  100  88  75  63  53  43  33  29  24 
25 Years  100  100  87  70  59  46  35  30  26  20 
30 Years  100  95  85  68  59  41  34  34  27  15 
75% Stocks25% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  95  82  68  64  46  36  27 
20 Years  100  100  90  75  61  51  37  27  20  12 
25 Years  100  100  85  65  50  37  30  22  7  2 
30 Years  100  98  83  68  49  34  22  7  2  0 
50% Stocks50% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  93  79  64  50  32  23  13 
20 Years  100  100  90  75  55  33  22  10  0  0 
25 Years  100  100  80  57  37  20  7  0  0  0 
30 Years  100  95  76  51  17  5  0  0  0  0 
25% Stocks75% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  89  70  50  32  18  13  7 
20 Years  100  100  82  47  31  16  8  4  0  0 
25 Years  100  93  48  24  15  4  2  0  0  0 
30 Years  100  71  27  20  5  0  0  0  0  0 
100% Bonds  
15 Years  100  100  100  71  39  21  18  16  14  9 
20 Years  100  90  47  20  14  12  10  2  0  0 
25 Years  100  46  17  15  11  2  0  0  0  0 
30 Years  80  20  17  12  0  0  0  0  0  0 
The Trinity Study Tables
Table 4:
Terminal
Value of a $1,000 Portfolio after Annual Withdrawals: All Payout Periods from 1926 to 1995
Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest dollar amount. The number of overlapping 15year payout periods from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20year periods, 51; 25year periods, 46; 30year periods, 41. Based on all past payout periods, the statistical values for each case represent the mean, the arithmetic average terminal value; minimum, the smallest terminal value; 25%, the lower quartile; median, the 50th percentile; 75%, the upper quartile; and maximum, the largest terminal value.
Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.
as a % of Initial Portfolio Value 

25 % Bonds 
50 % Bonds 
75% Bonds 

Payout Period 
4  5  6  7  4  5  6  7  4  5  6  7 
15 Years  
Mean  2964  2631  2297  1970  2285  1992  1698  1405  1755  1496  1236  977 
Minimum  493  249  5  0  855  615  375  135  969  756  542  327 
25%  1567  1336  1050  798  1402  1186  969  727  1192  962  735  520 
Median  2727  2328  1909  1543  2086  1770  1472  1175  1422  1198  951  727 
75%  4487  4068  3608  3213  2670  2345  2045  1774  1804  1568  1332  1048 
Maximum  6417  5919  5421  4923  5554  5103  4652  4202  5321  4898  4474  4051 
20 Years  
Mean  4239  3628  3026  2435  2954  2449  1944  1443  2026  1606  1185  765 
Minimum  536  108  0  0  975  587  199  0  1019  744  451  110 
25%  2384  1849  1346  915  1919  1486  1056  688  1407  1031  670  307 
Median  4481  3752  2914  2076  2755  2291  1798  1309  1505  1164  824  502 
75%  5618  5034  4397  3554  3547  3041  2561  2024  2002  1573  1166  758 
Maximum  9484  8672  7859  7047  7512  6769  6025  5282  5965  5168  4422  3746 
25 Years  
Mean  6031  4995  3991  3016  3815  3007  2199  1416  2307  1672  1036  424 
Minimum  785  0  0  0  1340  655  0  0  1203  736  269  0 
25%  4138  2995  2019  1223  3035  2294  1447  634 
1626

1129

643

11

Median  5574  4483  3710  2636  3568  2706  2058  1381 
1850

1325

787

200

75%  8016  6943  5972  4295  4582  3857  2930  2013 
2564

1714

971

415

Maximum  11534  10418  9301  8185  8109  6624  5138  3652 
6795

5492

4188

2997

30 Years  
Mean  9031  7367  5779  4262  5171  3936  2712  1553 
2645

1724

803

122

Minimum  1497  0  0  0  2151  870  0  0 
1428

729

29

0

25%  6998  5461  3490  1962  4174  3200  2036  730 
1917

1182

527

0

Median  8515  6868  5586  3745  5171  4041  2610  1251  2245  1481  806  0 
75%  10134  9037  7804  6486  6046  4541  3377  2487  3399  2162  964  58 
Maximum  16893  14980  13067  11245  8423  7212  6001  4790  5407  3451  2080  1330 
[...] It’s paradoxical by the way, but it’s the rich guy that can afford to be conservative. With $5 million, he can stick it in the bank at 2% and have $100,00 annual income. But if your nest egg is $1 million, you cannot survive on 2% interest. You are forced to take more risk to get a higher return. So the paradox is that rich people can invest for retirement more conservatively while those with fewer financial resources MUST invest more aggressively if they have any hope of having their retirement savings last. To see the proof of this, please look up the Trinity Study. [...]